Starbench Analysis

SpaceX Sumparts

SpaceX listed as SPCX on June 12, 2026. The Starbench SpaceX Sumparts Model values the company segment by segment and reconciles the result against the market's close each day. When model and market disagree (for an Elon company?!), the report interprets which segments are causing the disagreement.

What's inside

  • Segment DCFs: Starlink consumer and enterprise/government, launch, Starshield, Crew Dragon, and HLS, with Starship carried as a real option
  • The AI segment: S-1 consolidated xAI and X into SPCX; our model values it separately along a frontier-lab versus neocloud axis anchored on the disclosed Colossus compute-rental contracts, and publishes space-core EV alongside AI EV
  • S-1 calibration: segment P&L, 10.3M Starlink subscribers and the disclosed ARPU curve, the $28.4B backlog, $29.1B of debt, and a cash-runway table
  • Share count: diluted shares rebuilt from the S-1 cap table, including the Mars-milestone compensation overhang
  • Track record: pre-IPO scenario tree, frozen and graded against the realized $1.78T pricing

What subscribers receive

  • A daily model-vs-market reconciliation against the SPCX close
  • Event studies and alerts on filings, from the first 10-Q onward
  • The full valuation model with sourced inputs