Lunar Ice (Icestack)

Icestack is our custom toolkit for predicting realistic surface and subsurface distributions of ice within lunar permanently shadowed regions. Data do not yet exist to definitively map the location and extent of lunar ice deposits, but the physics-based Icestack scenario packets are simultaneously consistent with all existing remote sensing datasets (LCROSS, LPNS, LAMP/ShadowCam/M3) even though those datasets were not used to develop the models. The scenario packs can be used to evaluate prospecting missions and extraction scenarios.

Two rendered blocks of simulated polar stratigraphy in gray with scattered ice-bearing patches, beside a vertical section plot of the modeled column. — Icestack stratigraphy from a single simulation: dry regolith in gray, ice-bearing material colored by mass fraction on a square-root scale. The section at right cuts the full modeled column, about 100 m deep across 12 km.

At its core, Icestack involves physics-based 3D Monte Carlo simulations of the full stratigraphy of ice and dry regolith within the polar areas. It can be tuned to operate at different scales, from smaller local patches, mid-sized cold traps, to an entire pole. The models include realistic production-function crater sampling, ejecta blankets, Maxwellian impact velocities with a piecewise volatile-retention curve, impact gardening, and topographic creep.

Outputs include grade-probability tables by depth interval (e.g., "X% chance of 0–5 wt% ice in the upper 10 cm"), exceedance curves, depth-to-first-ice maps, and drill-strip logs. Reported as probabilities per prospecting-scale column, with within-run spatial variability and run-to-run uncertainty kept separate.

A Bayesian layer re-weights the existing ensembles against incoming observations by importance sampling. For example, with newly collected, higher-resolution neutron spectrometer data, you can get posterior reserve tables and a posterior over deposition onset.

Adapting it to your work

Tell us where you're exploring, what depths you plan to sample, and the prospecting or extraction decisions you need to make. We'll tailor the ice-deposit scenarios and analysis to your mission.

Our published research

Cannon, K. M., and D. T. Britt (2020). A Geologic Model for Lunar Ice Deposits at Mining Scales. Icarus, 347, 113778.

Cannon, K. M., A. N. Deutsch, J. W. Head, and D. T. Britt (2020). Stratigraphy of Ice and Ejecta Deposits at the Lunar Poles. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088920.

Cannon, K. M., and A. N. Deutsch (2023). Revisiting Ice Stratigraphies at the Lunar Poles. Lunar and Planetary Science Conference LIV, Abstract #1259.

Cannon, K. M. (2024). Descriptive and Genetic Models for Lunar Ice Deposits Consistent with Current Remote Sensing Data. Space Resources Roundtable XXIV.